The shipping industry is anticipating a return to freight seasonality in 2026, driven by a more stable US tariff landscape and China's diversification of export markets.
Despite a 1.4% contraction in US container imports in 2025 due to trade war dynamics, global container volumes grew over 4%. Fleet growth has led to oversupply and lower rates in 2025, a trend expected to continue into 2026.
Carriers are cautiously resuming Red Sea transits, which will initially cause congestion and upward rate pressure before exacerbating oversupply. Air cargo proved resilient, with global volumes projected to grow 2.6% in 2026, supported by e-commerce adjustments and growth in lanes beyond the transpacific.
Air cargo rates remained stable due to agile capacity shifts.
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