Market analysts are reacting to U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, which have killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and triggered fears of a wider regional conflict.
These events are expected to significantly push oil prices higher due to disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, limited spare OPEC+ production capacity, and elevated geopolitical risk premiums. Some oil majors and trading houses have suspended shipments via the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts predict Brent crude could reach $100 per barrel, with potential for a $5-10 increase above the current $73 baseline if the conflict escalates. The market is also concerned about the lack of significant spare production capacity within OPEC+, with Saudi Arabia being the primary exception.
Shipping and insurance risks in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating, with some tankers rerouting and insurance premiums surging.
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